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Seminar - Bayesian Model Selection for Beta Autoregressive Processes (joint with Leisen, F. and Dalla Valle, L.)

the lecture will be ginven by Roberto Casarin, Department of Economics, University of Venice.

24/05/2011 dalle 00:00 alle 00:00

Dove Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche "Paolo Fortunati" via delle Belle Arti 41 40126 Bologna 2.30 pm Room 3

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We deal with Bayesian inference for beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes.

These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate due to the constraints on the parameter space.

We provide a full Bayesian approach to the estimation and include the parameter restrictions in the inference problem by a suitable specification of the prior distributions. Moreover in a Bayesian framework parameter estimation and model choice can be solved simultaneously.

In particular we suggest a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure based on a Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs algorithm and solve the model selection problem following a reversible jump MCMC approach.

Statistics Seminars 2011